World · Resolves Dec 31

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Yes is currently priced at 30%. That is 1 point lower than 24 hours ago.

30%

Yes

−1 pts

24 hours

$53.8K

24h volume

Established

Market depth

15-day probability history

Source: Polymarket · Displayed outcome: Yes.

View on Polymarket

Market details

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Movement

1 hour: +1 pts
24 hours: −1 pts
7 days: −4 pts

Market facts

Resolves: Dec 31
Liquidity: $68.9K
Total volume: $234.5K
Open interest: $184.3K
Spread: 1.0 pts
Bid / ask: 29% / 30%