Markets · Resolves Oct 18

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18?

Yes is currently priced at 98%. That is 98 points higher than 24 hours ago.

98%

Yes

+98 pts

24 hours

$50.1K

24h volume

Thin market

Market depth

15-day probability history

Source: Polymarket · Displayed outcome: Yes.

View on Polymarket

Market details

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Movement

1 hour: 0 pts
24 hours: +98 pts
7 days: 0 pts

Market facts

Resolves: Oct 18
Liquidity: $6.2K
Total volume: $59.2K
Open interest: $114.9K
Spread: 0.7 pts
Bid / ask: 98% / 99%

Resolution source