World · Resolves Jul 15

Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

Yes is currently priced at 4%.

Yes

0 pts

24 hours

$21.4K

24h volume

Established

Market depth

15-day probability history

Source: Polymarket · Displayed outcome: Yes.

View on Polymarket

Market details

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Movement

1 hour: 0 pts
24 hours: 0 pts
7 days: −3 pts

Market facts

Resolves: Jul 15
Liquidity: $94.6K
Total volume: $1.3M
Open interest: $407.1K
Spread: 1.2 pts
Bid / ask: 3% / 4%