Politics · Resolves Oct 5

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes is currently priced at 22%. That is 2 points higher than 24 hours ago.

22%

Yes

+2 pts

24 hours

$441K

24h volume

Deep market

Market depth

15-day probability history

Source: Polymarket · Displayed outcome: Yes.

View on Polymarket

Market details

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Movement

1 hour: 0 pts
24 hours: +2 pts
7 days: +9 pts

Market facts

Resolves: Oct 5
Liquidity: $799.7K
Total volume: $26.5M
Open interest: $10.6M
Spread: 1.0 pts
Bid / ask: 21% / 22%

Resolution source